SPORTS ADVISORS
Louisville (13-7, 5-10 ATS) at (9) West Virginia (16-3, 7-11 ATS)
The Mountaineers pursue their fourth straight win when they play host to Louisville in a Big East contest at the WVU Coliseum.
West Virginia rolled over DePaul 62-46 Tuesday night for its third consecutive SU win (1-2 ATS), but fell just short as an overwhelming 17-point home chalk. The Mountaineers, who won their first 11 games of the season (4-6 ATS in lined action), have been particularly good on the glass, grabbing 34.8 rebounds while allowing just 27.2 (11th in the nation). They are also averaging 73.5 ppg while yielding 61.5 ppg.
Louisville topped Cincinnati on Sunday 68-60 at home, halting a three-game SU skid, but it failed to cover as a nine-point chalk, its fifth straight non-cover. The Cardinals sport one of the highest-scoring teams in the country, at 80.0 ppg (21st), while giving up 69.4 ppg. However, in the three setbacks prior to the win over Cincy, they allowed 92 points at home to Villanova, 82 at Pitt and 80 at Seton Hall.
Louisville has won four in a row in this rivalry SU and four of the last five ATS, including a 62-59 win catching 2½ points last March at the WVU Coliseum. The road team cashed in both of last year’s meetings, after a 2-1-1 ATS uptick by the home team.
The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win, but they are on a 6-2 ATS run at home against teams with a losing road record. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are on ATS tears of 42-17-2 in the Big East and 27-11-1 on the highway, but they have their share of negative ATS streaks, including the aforementioned 0-5 overall, 0-4 after a non-cover, 1-4 following a SU win and 1-6 on Saturday.
The under for West Virginia is on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-0 in conference play and 5-2 at home. On the flip side, the over for Louisville is on rolls of 10-4 overall, 7-1 on Saturday, 6-2 after either a SU win or an ATS loss and 7-3 in on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA
Marquette (12-8, 9-5 ATS) at (19) UConn (13-7, 8-10 ATS)
The inconsistent Huskies, still without coach Jim Calhoun as his medical leave continues, take on Marquette at the XL Center in Hartford.
Connecticut notched SU and ATS wins over St. John’s and top-ranked Texas in Calhoun’s first two games away from the bench, then fell flat Wednesday in an 81-66 blowout loss at Providence as a 4½-point chalk. The Huskies, who are 2-4 SU in their last six (3-3 ATS), are outscoring opponents by seven ppg (73.2-66.2) and holding them to just 37.7 percent shooting (ninth in the nation).
Marquette hammered Rutgers 82-59 Tuesday as a hefty 17½-point favorite, stemming a 2-5 SU skid, and the Golden Eagles are now 6-2 ATS in their last eight starts. Marquette is averaging 75.6 ppg, with the nation’s top three-point shooting unit (43.1 percent), while allowing opponents 62.5 ppg.
Since Marquette joined the Big East a few years back, these teams have split four meetings, with the Eagles winning the first two SU and ATS and the Huskies taking the last two SU and ATS. Last February, Connecticut bagged a 93-82 road win as a one-point chalk, which followed an 89-73 rout at home two years ago giving 2½ points.
Despite Wednesday’s debacle at Providence, the Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 starts and are on additional pointspread rolls of 5-1 on Saturday, 5-1 at home, 5-2 in the Big East and 7-3 against winning teams, though they are also on a 2-5 ATS skid following a non-cover. The Golden Eagles are on ATS runs of 5-1 overall (all in the Big East), 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 after a SU win of more than 20 points.
UConn is on “under” stretches of 4-1 overall, 5-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 in the Big East. However, the over has hit in six consecutive Saturday starts for the Huskies and is on a 4-0 run for the squad against winning teams, and Marquette is on “over” strings of 4-1 overall (all in the Big East), 4-0 against winning teams and 21-6 on Saturday. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in each of the last four clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCONN and OVER
(8) Duke (17-3, 13-6 ATS) at (7) Georgetown (15-4, 8-7 ATS)
The Blue Devils and the Hoyas step out of conference play for a clash of top-10 teams at the Verizon Center.
Duke has bounced back from its 88-74 upset loss at North Carolina State 10 days ago, dumping Clemson 60-47 as a two-point road favorite last Saturday, then dropping Florida State 70-56 giving 12½ points at home Wednesday. The Blue Devils are outscoring foes by nearly 21 ppg, racking up 82 ppg (10th) while allowing 61.4 ppg, and their three-point defense rates ninth nationally (28.5 percent).
Georgetown has sandwiched two wins between a pair of losses in its last four games, getting trounced at No. 4 Syracuse 73-56 Monday as a 5½-point underdog. The other loss in that stretch was an 82-77 setback at then-No. 4 Villanova on Jan. 17 as a 4½-point pup, and that was followed by a 74-66 win over then-No. 9 Pitt as a one-point road pup. That means today’s contest is the Hoyas’ fourth against a top-10 opponent in a brutal 13-day stretch.
Georgetown averages 72.1 ppg and shoots 49.4 percent from the floor (10th), while giving up 62 ppg.
These perennial powerhouses have met five times since the 2002-03 season, with Duke going 4-1 SU but just 1-3-1 ATS, and the underdog and the road team are both 3-1-1 ATS. Last year in Durham, N.C., Mike Krzyzewski’s troops won 76-67, getting the push as a nine-point home favorite.
The Blue Devils are on a trio of 4-1 ATS runs – overall, against winning teams and in non-conference play – and are on a 10-4 ATS surge when coming off a SU win. However, Duke is just 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 Saturday starts and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six against Big East foes.
The Hoyas are on ATS purges of 3-9-1 on Saturday, 4-10 at home and 5-11 following a SU loss, though they’ve gone 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference outings, 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven against the ACC and 5-1 ATS in their last six after a pointspread defeat.
The over is on a host of rolls for Georgetown, including 5-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss, 6-1 after an ATS setback, 4-1 at home, 4-1 against winning teams and 8-3 against ACC foes. In addition, the over for Duke is on upticks of 4-1 against winning teams and 5-2 in non-conference action, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings. All that said, the under is 9-3 in the Blue Devils’ last dozen against Big East opposition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Oklahoma State (16-4, 9-4-1 ATS) at Missouri (15-5, 8-6 ATS)
The Cowboys, aiming for their fourth win in a row, travel to Columbia’s Mizzou Arena for a Big 12 meeting with the Tigers.
Oklahoma State followed its 73-69 road upset of Kansas State as a 9½-point pup last Saturday with a 76-69 home win over Texas A&M laying 5½ points Wednesday. The Cowboys, who have followed a two-game SU and ATS hiccup with three consecutive SU and ATS wins, are putting up 74.6 ppg while allowing 64.4. During their current three-game surge, they’ve shot 52.4 percent from the floor.
After going on a nine-game SU tear (4-1 ATS in lined action), Missouri has lost two of its last three SU and ATS, including an 84-65 beatdown at the hands of archrival Kansas as a 12-point road ‘dog Monday night. The Tigers are averaging 80.8 ppg (19th) and allowing 64.1 ppg, but both those numbers improve at home, where they are rolling up 87.4 ppg while yielding just 59.5 ppg. Over the last five games, though, Mizzou is shooting just 35.6 percent, while its opponents are shooting 41.8 percent.
Missouri has owned this rivalry lately, winning two in row and seven of the last eight SU and ATS. Last year, the Tigers eked out a 97-95 road win as a one-point pup in the regular season, then topped the Cowboys 67-59 laying 4½ points in the Big 12 tourney in Oklahoma City. The favorite is also on a 7-1 ATS run in this rivalry. This is the first meeting in Missouri since the 2005-06 season.
The Tigers are on a bundle of spread-covering sprees, including 21-10 overall, 21-6 at home, 7-1 after a SU loss, 6-1 following a non-cover, 4-1 on Saturday and 13-6 against winning teams. Likewise, the Cowboys are on pointspread tears of 20-5-1 overall, 13-3 in the Big 12, 7-2-1 on Saturday, 17-5-1 against winning teams, 14-4 after a spread-cover and 18-7-2 after a SU victory.
The under for Missouri is on surges of 4-1 overall and 7-1 in conference action, and the under for Oklahoma State is on streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 in roadies, 4-1 on Saturday, 19-7 after a SU win and 5-1 coming off a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and UNDER
(24) Baylor (15-4, 9-3 ATS) at (6) Texas (18-2, 7-9 ATS)
The Longhorns, trying to get back on track after losing their first-ever No. 1 ranking in short order, take on Baylor in a Big 12 battle at the Frank Erwin Center.
Texas was unbeaten and nabbed the No. 1 ranking on Jan. 18, then promptly went out that evening and lost at Kansas State 71-62 as a one-point road pup. Last Saturday at UConn, the ‘Horns tumbled again, blowing an eight-point halftime lead and losing 88-74 as a 1½-point chalk. But they bounced back Wednesday at home with a 95-83 victory over Texas A&M, falling short as a 16½-points favorite – the team’s seventh straight non-cover
Texas has the nation’s second-best scoring attack at 85.2 ppg, while allowing 66.9, and the Longhorns are No. 1 nationally at 41.4 rebounds per outing, almost 11 more than their opponents (30.6).
Baylor has alternated SU wins and losses over its last five games, including Tuesday’s 76-74 home setback to Kansas State as a 1½-point chalk. The Bears average 78.3 ppg on a stout 49.4 percent shooting (12th in the nation), while allowing 63.2 ppg with a defense that holds foes to just 36.5 percent shooting from the floor (third nationally).
Texas is 9-1 SU (5-5 ATS) in the last 10 clashes in this rivalry, but the one loss came in the most recent meeting, a 76-70 setback as a 4½-point favorite in last year’s Big 12 tourney. Prior to that, Rick Barnes’ troops had won and covered four straight against the Bears. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Along with their current 0-7 ATS plunge, the Longhorns are on additional pointspread slides of 0-6 against winning teams, 0-6 after a spread-cover, 0-5 following a SU win, 3-9 on Saturday and just 6-22-2 within the Big 12. The lone positive: a 4-1 ATS run at home versus teams with a winning road record. Baylor, meanwhile, sports nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 9-2 overall, 5-0 on Saturday, 5-1 on the highway, 8-2 against winning teams and 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss.
Texas is on “over” sprees of 5-2 overall, 5-1 on Saturday, 5-1 against winning teams, 5-2 after a non-cover and 15-7 after a SU win, and the over for Baylor is on tears of 6-1 overall, 5-0 in the Big 12, 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 on Saturday and 4-1 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR and OVER
(21) Vanderbilt (16-3, 11-6 ATS) at (1) Kentucky (19-1, 9-9 ATS)
The red-hot Commodores go after their 11th straight victory and try to hand top-ranked Kentucky its second loss this week as these SEC rivals clash at Rupp Arena.
Vanderbilt is a perfect 6-0 (5-1 ATS) in SEC play, most recently rallying from a four-point deficit at No. 14 Tennessee on Wednesday and prevailing 85-76 as a 6½-point road underdog. It was the third straight time and the eighth time during the winning streak that the Commodores scored at least 82 points. They’ve won and covered all three of their conference road games, and are 6-2 SU and ATS in road/neutral-site contests this year.
The Wildcats took over the No. 1 ranking this week as the only unbeaten team left in Division I, then promptly went to South Carolina on Wednesday and fell 68-62 as a seven-point road favorite. It was just the third time all season that Kentucky scored less than 72 points (the first two came in back-to-back games against North Carolina and UConn). John Calipari’s squad shot a dismal 38.6 percent from the field, including 3-for-12 from three-point range, in falling to 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS in league play despite outscoring conference opponents by 10 ppg (80-70).
Kentucky’s most recent game at Rupp Arena came last Saturday, and it destroyed Arkansas 101-70 as a 16½-point chalk, improving to 13-0 in Lexington (but just 5-6 ATS). The ‘Cats average 86.1 ppg (50.5 percent shooting) at Rupp, and hold visitors to 65.7 ppg (37.5 percent).
The host has won the last five meetings between these squads, going 4-0 ATS in the last four. A year ago, the Wildcats won 70-60 and barely covered as a nine-point home favorite before going to Vandy five weeks later and falling 77-64 as a one-point road chalk. The Commodores have taken six of the last eight meetings SU (4-4 ATS), but they’re 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to Lexington.
Vanderbilt is riding positive pointspread streaks of 7-1 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 4-1 in conference and 7-1 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have now failed to cash in eight of their last 11 SEC contests going back to last year, but they’re 5-0 ATS in their last five when coming off a non-cover. In fact, since the beginning of December, Kentucky hasn’t once had back-to-back non-covers (a span of 13 games).
The high-scoring Commodores are on a slew of “over” streaks, including 4-1 overall, 5-1 in SEC play, 7-1 on the road and 4-1 on Saturday, while Kentucky has topped the total in eight of 11 overall, six of seven at home and four in a row after a non-cover. On the flip side, the under has been the play in each of the last five series meetings at Rupp Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VANDERBILT and OVER
